(When) will the next crisis start?

Abstract

The financial crisis of 2007 left behind major economic and political
upheavals that have not yet been completely overcome. As a result of this
crisis, high financial risks are still lurking in the so-called bad banks, which
in all probability will sooner or later have to be paid for by the taxpayer. As
a result of the crisis, the national debt of many countries has risen considerably
anyway, and in some countries there was even the threat of national
bankruptcy. Unprecedented amounts of assets were destroyed. Risks, such
as the significant rise in commodity prices and „systemic” risks in the banking
sector due to banks still not having sufficient equity capital, continue to
exist. Changes in political omens, such as the deregulation of the financial
markets announced by the American President TRUMP, increase the latent

risk of another financial crisis. At present, low interest rates combined with
completely overpriced property prices and the critical level of individual
national debt entail risks which, in the opinion of the author, could be the
cause of another financial crisis. The fact that there is already a financial
„crisis” at least in Germany shows that despite a flourishing economy and
historically low interest rates, national debts cannot be reduced or can only
be reduced to an insignificant extent and that the new finance minister also
only targets the goal of not incurring new debts. This latent crisis is currently
only being masked by a pleasing economic situation and the associated high
tax revenues. The author expects the financial crisis to return or the onset
of a new financial crisis in the nearest 6 years, whereby a significant rise in
interest rates will, in his opinion, be a major trigger.