Determinants of the economic cycle synchronisation: analysis with the use of BMA and convergence measures. Part II: estimation results

Abstract

The first part of the article discusses the issues of determinants, details
of the construction of business cycles synchronisation measure and its determinants,
and a description of the Bayesian model averaging and jointness
measures possible to calculate within it. The second part of the article uses
the methodology described in the first part in order to determine which of
the twelve potential regressors are robust determinants of business cycles synchronisation.
As a result of the estimation, five robust determinants of business
cycles synchronisation were distinguished. Correlation of the monetary
policy, membership in the European Union, membership in the Eurozone
and the level of synchronisation of business cycles in the USA have positive
impact on business cycles synchronisation. The GDP per capita distance, however,
is a business cycle synchronisation de-stimulant. The signs of estimation
parameters of the above-mentioned variables are unambiguously determined
and are consistent with theory predictions. The robustness of the results for
those variables is indicated not only by their posterior inclusion probability
values of inklusion in the model but also by the fact that they remain resistant
to a priori change in distribution specification.