Expectations of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership macroeconomic effects: an attempt to provide constructive assessment

Abstract

The main purpose of the paper is to provide a critical overview and analysis
of literature concerning expected and predicted macroeconomic effects
of the TTIP on the EU and the US. The paper contains information on
the main points that are being negotiated by the representatives of the EU
and the US. We also try to shed some light on the social expectations of the
TTIP, which we discuss with reference to Eurobarometer and Bertelsmann
Foundation survey results. The CGE model results together with the critique
and macroeconomic consequences of the TTIP are captured, too. Moreover,
these are compared to the experience of NAFTA – the agreement between
the USA, Canada and Mexico, which has been in force for 22 years now.
A comparative analysis of NAFTA ex ante models and the results of empirical
research ex post shows that most ex ante models overestimated benefits
and underestimated losses of the Free Trade Agreement. NAFTA experience
emphasises weaknesses of ex ante models and shows that a mismatch
between real and estimated effects of NAFTA can be an indicative answer
to the question about the scale of a mismatch between the TTIP prospective
and real influence.