Hybrid war, strategic military surprise and limited war vs military threats from Russia

Abstract

The article analyses the characteristic features of military threats from
Russia to the northern and eastern flanks of NATO. The starting points are
first of all the direction and objectives of modernisation and development of
the Russian military forces, Russian military exercises and possible strategic
aims of the expansive policy of Moscow in the Baltic region. Next, the threat
is analysed through the prism of three concepts that have appeared in the scientific
and public debate in the context of Russia’s aggressive policy: a hybrid
war, a strategic military surprise and a limited war. Making conclusions, the
author states that on no account NATO should treat hybrid operations as
a basic scenario of potential aggression by Russia. Such a treat, although
real, is neither more probable nor the most dangerous from the point of
view of negative results as well as the possibility of defending against them.
The biggest challenge that NATO and such countries as Poland are facing is
undertaking steps to protect the eastern flank of the alliance against unexpected
conventional military aggression.