Post communist countries of Central Eastern Europe facing middle income trap problem. Preliminary findings based on statistical data and some factor analyses for 1990–2014

Abstract

The main aim of the paper is to illustrate and analyse growth and convergence
process of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, CEE, namely:
Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania in the
1990–2014 period. The countries, after a successful growth and catch-up process
as observed over most of the transformation period of 1990–2007, have
suddenly, since 2008, slowed down their convergence process vis-à-vis some
old EU member countries and especially vis-à-vis the non EU OECD member
counties like the countries of the Anglo-Saxon socio-economic model
and several countries of Far East Asia. The process of the slowdown, if it is
to continue, will make most of the countries of the region being stuck in the
middle income trap level defined as 40–70% of the GDP per capita level of
the reference countries, i.e. the old EU or the non EU OECD members, for
many years to come. An attempt to identify and analyse some main causes
of the economic growth and the convergence slowdown of CEE countries is
to be undertaken in this paper as well.